1 College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Being Available In On Texas'

albertacalkins edited this page 2025-01-02 04:31:00 +00:00

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The college football world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 versus the spread, including three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't seem to think so. A minimum of in 2 cases.

Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the money is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market as well. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most love from sharp wagerers. The Athletic talked to numerous bookmakers who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely respected gamer."

Although reputable money has actually can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public bettors are overdoing Texas.

"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.

While the Texas game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in the area. We chatted with several bookies to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has crept up a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at a lot of sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line creeps up a little bit more before kickoff, but I presently invite any Boise State cash."

Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.

So why is OSU favored?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before reputable money pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A slightly greater bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has actually can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.

"We did take some reputable money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually gone up three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the biggest relocation of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and immediately our Ohio bettors believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."

He did note, however, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What triggered the line turn? Basically, the wagering action.
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Even though Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.